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Tony Awards: Predicting the Play Winners Using Math

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Want a sneak peek at the Tony results before Sunday night? While we can’t get ahold of the vote totals in advance, we can make some reasonable estimates using just math.

Every year, I predict the Tony Award winners using the results of other theater awards, the categories each show was nominated in and critics’ predictions from across the internet. I weight each of these factors by how well they’ve predicted the Tonys in each category in previous years, and then apply that weighting to this year’s nominees to determine their chances.

When I performed similar calculations for the 2018 Oscars, my model made 20 correct picks across 21 categories. But there’s no guarantee that the model fares as well for this year’s Tonys: These are percentages, after all, and upsets do happen. That’s what makes award shows like Sunday night’s so exciting.

source : https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/tony-awards-2018-play-winners-predictions-1117847/

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